Political Season Heating Up, Slowly

By DON WINNER for Panama-Guide.com - It may seem like it's still very early to be talking about the next national Panamanian election which will not be held until May of 2009. But in fact this is when politics in Panama are genuinely interesting because all of the obvious questions have not yet been defined. For example, who is going to be the candidate for the PRD for President? Everyone knows that Martin Torrijos would like to be followed by Samuel Lewis Navarro, but now the job at hand is pulling that off, and first they have to get past the elections for the National Executive Committee (CEN) and then a national PRD primary. Other serious contenders are ex-President Ernesto Perez Balladares who very much wants to return to power. The third wheel is Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro, who apparently is willing to be a team player for the strategic and long-term good of the party. Balbina Herrera, ex-Dignity Battalion Commander, National Assembly deputy for San Miguelito and current Minister of Housing is a force of nature in Panamanian politics. She's a very smart career politician who has, so far, managed to dodge bullets when necessary, bide her time and play her cards right. She's a shoe-in to be the next Mayor of Panama City. (more)

What Is The "Opposition" In Panama the political party in power is called the "official" party and the party that is not in power is called the "opposition." During the end of the Noriega regime the "opposition" took to the streets almost daily to try to force him to step down. Then after the invasion the "opposition" became the "official" voice of the government. Since then power has switched back and forth between the two major parties several times. Endara (Arnulfista) after the invasion, then Balladares (PRD) until 1999, then Moscoso (Arnulfista) until 2004, and now Torrijos (PRD) until 2009. So, right now the PRD is the "official" party and the political party formerly known as the Arnulfistas (now known as the Panamanistas) are the "opposition." I wanted to lay that out because it can get confusing sometimes.

Internal Maneuvering in the PRD: The internal fight for power within the PRD is the real show now in Panamanian politics. It's like after watching the Red Sox and Yankees in the ALCS, the World Series is almost an after thought. Right now the various power brokers in the PRD are scheming and maneuvering for position to try to set themselves up for the post-Torrios administration. Within the PRD the key players right now are:

• Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares: Balladares represents the old school of the PRD. Most of the people that he had in office with him were straight out of the Noriega years. His nickname is El Toro (the Bull) and he leaves no doubt as to who is in charge. He still has a loyal following but their numbers are dwindling, primarily because Martin Torrijos and the PRD are doing a relatively good job. Balladares is one of those guys who is only happy with the top spot, and he alone is facturing the PRD into two camps, those who follow him and everyone else. He's in the minority within the PRD and can't take control of the party back at this point, but he is a force to be reckoned with for anyone else who wants to swim in these waters.
  
  
• Balbina Herrera: Balbina Herrera is the current Housing Minister. She started off as a Commander of the Dignity Battalion in San Miguelito for Manuel Noriega. After the invasion she was elected to the National Assembly as the deputy for San Miguelito and has been a steadfast PRD soldier forever. She delivered her followers to Martin Torrijos and for that she was promoted to his cabinet. Now it appears she has decided that she wants to be the next Mayor of Panama City, which is, in fact, a logical progression for her political career. I've been watching her in the media and in person over the past couple of weeks and she still lacks some polish to be able to hang at the national level. But she's basically a walk-on for Mayor because of her wide acceptance among Panama's poor. She's being handed this position by both Martin Torrijos and the current Mayor of Panama City Juan Carlos Navarro. So, whoever runs against her is going to get trounced. The opposition is not likely to spend $5.00 on a challenger. This one is in the bag already.
  
  

They have had their rough spots, but they also have been lucky enough to be presiding over a period of unprecedented economic expansion. The opposition can try to "cook the books" all day long, but in fact there are now more jobs and more money running through the Panamanian economy than ever before. Everyone is generally doing better and there's more coming that will reach down to those who have not yet been touched by this expansion. In other words, people like what Torrijos has done.

The "Familia Crisis": Mireya Moscoso took over in 1999 and shortly thereafter the world entered into a mild recession. There's an expression here that goes "when the US gets a cold, Panama gets the flu" with regards to economic activity because the two economies are closely linked both directly and indirectly. For example when consumer spending drops in the United States less merchandise flows through the Panama Canal and the Colon Free Zone. What matters is that Moscoso had the bad luck of being in charge when the economy took a serious downturn, which they called the "crisis." There were less jobs, not more. People were not spending money on anything and everyone was playing the few resources they had close to their chest. And in Panama there is a tendency to blame the government for everything, so Moscoso took the brunt of the blame on the local political scene. It was so bad that the political party named after her late husband changed their name from the Arnulfistas to the Panamanistas in an attempt to erase the memory of Moscoso.

Fractured Opposition: Part of the fun and games is watching the various parties and players in the opposition try to figure out what to do. They are on the outside looking in. Torrijos has about a 60% approval rating, which is kicking butt for a party that normally can only count on 35% of the vote. And all of the several opposition options and key players are calling for unity, but not one of them has said they will set their own aspirations aside and back another personality. In fact, so far no single charismatic person has emerged from the ashes of the opposition with the leadership ability to unite all of the factions and herd the cats. Rather, this is what the opposition spectrum looks like so far:

• Juan Carlos Varela: The current sitting President of the Panamanista party. His performance leading up to the referendum vote was lackluster and from what I've seen he lacks the spark to play at the national level. He was the guy who got the most votes in an internal Panamanista election, but just barely. So, that means he has about half of the wreckage of the party behind him. Not nearly enough for a victory over the PRD.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Marco Ameglio: Lost in the internal Panamanista primaries to Varela, even though he was the primary architect in the process to democratize the party. He's trying to mount an outside challenge for the primaries but his chances are slim.
  
  
  
• Guillermo Endara: Endara was President of Panama from 1989 to 1994, and was the leader of the opposition to Noriega. He was the leader of the Arnulfista party at that time but after his term finished he was basically tossed out by Mireya Moscoso to make room for her own aspirations. Endara ran a surprisingly strong race in 2004 and came in second behind Torrijos as a third-party candidate. Now apparently Endara, Moscoso, and Balladares seem to be forming some kind of coalition of the ex-Presidents, which is truly absurd.
  
  
• Mireya Moscoso: Ex-President of Panama who ran the show from 1999 to 2004. As discussed earlier, she ended her term in disgrace. Her hand-picked successor, Jose Miguel Aleman, was largely ignored in the polls, as result which seemed to say loud and clear that the people wanted something different, and anything would do as long as it was not a continuation of the Moscoso administration. Martin Torrijos was elected on a "zero corruption" platform, mostly because the administration of Mireya Moscoso was widely perceived to be one of the most corrupt in the history of the country.
  
  
  
  
• Ricardo Martinelli: The owner of the Super99 chain of grocery stores, Martinelli is the CEO of the Cambio Democratico (CD) (Democratic Change) political party. He spent the entire campaign trying to convince people that he was not a rich rabiblanco, and this campaign theme was "walking in the shoes of the people." He has never held any kind of political office so he does not have a track record, other than that of a successful businessman. He's formed an alliance with Juan Carlos Varela and will probably end up as the First Vice President candidate on an opposition ticket.

That's About It: One remains hard pressed to fathom a scenario that has the PRD losing in the next election considering the current fractured state of the opposition. Even if they instantly (right now) put aside all of their internal bickering and aspirations and united strongly behind one candidate, the fundamental conditions for the PRD are so good that the election is theirs to lose. Smart politicians from all over will see that, and between now and the elections there will be more defections to the PRD from candidates from the "opposition" parties who want to remain in power. Barring some kind of an earth-shattering scandal, major political upheaval, global economic catastrophe or other unforeseen significant event, the only thing left to define are the details.

No Damn Fun: Politicians are generally fun to watch as they swing around the cage and throw banana peels at one another. But all of the fun and games are happening right now and mostly behind closed doors. The rumors and gossip are consistent and it's no fun for me because if you play out the strategies that are emerging then you end up with the results I've already predicted. Nobody likes to watch the Superbowl when it's a blow-out - close games are much more exciting. So far, this one promises to be about as exciting as watching a kitten getting hit by a bus. You know what it's going to look like, and it ain't pretty.

Copyright 2007 by Don Winner for Panama-Guide.com. As usual, feel free to use whatever you want as long as you credit the source. Salud.