The Political Opposition and a Possible Alliance - Who Cares?
By DON WINNER for Panama-Guide.com - Juan Carlos Varela won the Panamanista primary election last weekend, defeating Alberto Vallarino and Marco Ameglio. He is now his party's nominee for the national Panamanian elections that will be held in May 2009. Right now the two most powerful leaders of the opposition to the ruling PRD are Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela. Everyone already knows that if the opposition does not unite before the national election, then no single opposition party will have a snowball's chance in hell of knocking off the PRD. So the question remains - How long will we be forced to endure the speculation? (more)
Short Answer Up Front: Martinelli says he's leading in the most recent polls - which makes perfect sense considering that the Panamanistas still had not decided on their candidate. The Panamanistas say they should lead any unified opposition ticket because their party is larger and they represent more people. But, Martinelli is gaining in popularity, especially among Panama's youth and there is a good chance that he might sign up another 100,000 members or so before the national election, challenging the fading Panamanista party for the position as the second largest party in the country. At this point it comes down to egos, and no one wants to take the #2 seat - they all want to be "the man."
In Short - "Who Cares" If the various opposition political leaders don't have enough of a clue to realize that they have to unite in order to even have a chance of winning, then why should we care? For the next several months there will be endless (and I mean non-friggin' stop) conversations and speculation over a potential unification of the opposition. For my part, please wake me up two days before the national election and just tell me what they finally decided to do. Normally I'm a political junkie, but I'm already tired of this crap. The basic arithmetic has not changed at all in the last three years. In short - unite or die. So, if they fail to unite then that's a form of political suicide and if they choose that route then they deserve whatever happens to them. In the meantime, I'm already bored with the whole thing, and I can imagine that the Panamanian voting population, and most importantly the non aligned independent swing voters who will actually decide the election, feel much the same way.
The Next Important Political Event: On 7 September 2008 the PRD will hold their primary election, and we will learn if Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro or the former Housing Minister Balbina Herrera will be the PRD pick for president. If you watch the commercials closely, you will have seen that Juan Carlos Navarro's television ads include images of him with the popular First Lady Vivian Torrijos as well as the sitting President Martin Torrijos. He has already gained the endorsement of former President Ernesto "El Toro" Balladares, and it's clear that Juan Carlos Navarro has the endorsement of Martin Torrijos. Balbina is fighting to rally her popularity among Panama's poor to overcome the PRD machine. I predict she will lose, but not by much.
The Mayoral Race: I still think that the best race for the 2009 election will be between Bobby Velasquez (PRD) and Bosco Vallarino (Panamanista) for the Mayor of Panama City. If Juan Carlos Navarro wins the PRD Presidential Primary and the opposition fails to unify, then the election is in the bag for the PRD, almost making it a non-event. At least there will be the interesting Mayoral race to fall back on.
Adios, PMG: Pedro Miguel Gonzalez will be voted out of the position of President of the National Assembly on 1 September 2008. He has promised not to run for re election and will probably be replaced by Jerry Wilson. Hopefully, the opposition will unite in PMG's congressional district and get him voted out of the National Assembly all together in May 2009. That would be fitting - he's basically a national embarrassment at this point in any case.
Copyright 2008 by Don Winner for Panama-Guide.com. Go ahead and use whatever you like as long as you credit the source. Salud.
