Blame Bernal if Bobby Beats Bosco

By DON WINNER for Panama-Guide.com - Now that the general national election in Panama is only two days away, the only really interesting race remains that for the Mayor of Panama City. Scandals affecting all three mayoral candidates leading up to the election marred all of them. Bobby Velasquez was faced with allegations of having received $3 million dollars from Colombian money launderer David Murcia. Bosco Vallarino was "charged" with having dual US-Panamanian citizenship, but was eventually cleared to run as a candidate. And the Electoral Tribunal reviewed the legitimacy of the candidacy of Miguel Antonio Bernal early on in the process and allowed him to run as a kind of quasi-independent. Just a couple of weeks ago the primary "dinosaurs" of the PRD, including former Panamanian president Ernesto Perez Balladares, met with Miguel Antonio Bernal over lunch right as the David Murcia scandal was breaking over the head of Bobby Velasquez. Those veteran PRD politicians foresaw exactly what was going to happen - the polling numbers were going to tighten up dramatically and Bobby Velasquez would drop in the polls, losing a good portion of the popular support gained as an "untainted" candidate. Without a doubt, the PRD dinosaurs wanted to make sure of one thing - Miguel Antonio Bernal had to stay in the race no matter what. In a three-way battle Velasquez still stands a chance against Bosco Vallarino - but only as long as Bernal stays in the race as a spolier. And although no legitimate political analyst in Panama thinks Bernal has a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning this election, he will probably succeed in drawing somewhere between 10% to 15% of the vote (and no more.) In addition, there are no (as in zero) PRD voters who will cast their vote for Bernal, so therefore 100% of the votes going to Bernal are coming from opposition (non-PRD) voters. Since the fall of Manuel Antonio Noriega the only way the PRD can win any election is if the opposition is fragmented. Martinelli is going to win the Presidency precisely because the opposition united behind his candidacy. Therefore, in effect, the role of Bernal has been reduced to serving as a "spoiler" for the PRD and Bobby Velasquez, and to ruin the chances of opposition candidate Bosco Vallarino. While it's still possible Bosco might win the election anyway - in spite of having Bernal in the race as a spoiler - his work is made much harder. So, if Velasquez wins, blame Bernal. With all of that having been said, this race is still completely up in the air - no one knows for sure who is going to win or by how much. It's going to be very tight.

Copyright 2009 by Don Winner for Panama-Guide.com. Go ahead and use whatever you like as long as you credit the source. Salud.