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Friday, August 22 2014 @ 05:50 AM EDT

Very Early Polling Data - Which Party Would You Vote For?

PoliticsIf the election were held today, the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) would win with 32% of the votes, as happened with the elections of May 1994, when the then-candidate Ernesto Perez Balladares won with 33% of the vote. This was revealed in a survey conducted by Unimer for La Prensa, through the question, "regardless of who was the candidate for President of the Republic, if the election were held today, for which party would you vote?"

The survey conducted between 17 and 29 May this year showed that 31% of respondents do not know for which party they would vote, while 15% say they would vote for Panameņista Party candidate, and 14% would support the candidate of the ruling Democratic Change (CD) party. Those leaning towards independents are 5% of the respondents (see graph).

Among those supporting the PRD are people from 35 to 44 years old, mostly in Bocas del Toro and Chiriqui. While respondents who support the CD are those aged between 55 and 64, residents in the central provinces and in urban areas.

The Unimer poll, which bases its findings with 1,209 respondents from most areas of the country, has a margin of error of 2.8%. In the 1994 elections, when Perez Balladares won, there were seven presidential candidates representing 14 political parties. (Prensa)

Editor's Comment: This result is consistent with known and established trends. The PRD always gets support in the mid 30's - no matter what. And the Panameņistas would get about 15% or less. So if you add up the CD faithful (14%) with the people who responded "don't know yet" (31%) you get 45% - and that's what I think the CD is going to get in the elections, eventually. Of course it will really depend on who the CD selects as their candidate. No matter, here we are, two years before the election, trying to read the tea leaves. I think the CD will win based on their performance, mostly in the areas of public works and projects, building the Metro, eliminating the "Red Devil" buses, restructuring traffic patterns in Panama City, building new roads and highways all over the country, and other new government infrastructure projects such as hospitals, schools, prisons, and government offices. The CD has had more money to spend than any previous Panamanian government in history, and they break a budget record every year. This is because the Panamanian economy continues to expand, and also because this administration has focused on making people pay the taxes owed by law. All of that turns into more money to spend, and they've spent it in a (relatively) responsible manner, mostly on infrastructure improvements. So, for all of those reasons, "Juan Six Pack" can see the difference between what the Panameņistas did last time they were in office (steal like crazy). And, it's unusual for the PRD to get more than 35% support - the other 65% are non PRD guys who would rather vote for anyone who is not PRD. This election is going to come down to a race between the PRD candidate (yet to be decided) and the CD candidate (yet to be decided).

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