An error in forecasting the El Niño weather phenomenon caused Panama to buy an "emergency electrical insurance policy" for $55 million dollars, and now the government will have to decide how to best use those resources. In January, when an "imminent drought" threatened power generation in the country, the Electricity Transmission Company, Ltd., (ETESA) predicted there would not be enough water to sustain the continuity of electrical service during the summer months due to the El Niño phenomenon. Faced with the possibility of four hour long rolling blackouts, ETESA's predictions, which were based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, and agency of NASA, led the National Energy Secretary in Panama to recommend emergency measures that resulted in the letting of a public bid held last December. The weather predictions said "there would be a drought, that we were going to have a dry year, and that the El Niño weather phenomenon would last until May or June. They also said there would be less water over the course of the entire year," said the National Energy Secretary Juan Urriola.

Within six days, the multinational company Agrekko PLC was awarded a contract worth $55.5 million dollars to rent thermal electrical generation plants with a capacity to produce 100 MW/h for one year. However, this summer it has rained in the areas around Lago Fortuna and the predictions of NASA, and therefore ETESA, were not met. There were even floods in Bocas del Toro. However, Urriola says the $ 55.5 million will not be wasted. "Agrekko plants will generate power during the months of March, April and May when the plants of Bahia Las Minas are changing from bunker to coal," he said, adding that "when we hired these plants we were faced not only with a shortage of water, but also with a series of failures in the thermal system. The government argues the country will be much safer because "rain is falling so we are fine, but at the same time there's not a lot of rain falling. God is on our side. The machines have been rented as a form of insurance for one year." Urriola explains the benefit of the contract awarded to Agrekko lasts a year, which we will cover not only this summer but next summer as well. "The machines will be used to provide a measure of guarantee to the Panamanian electrical system," concludes Urriola. (Source - La Estrella)   

The National Civil Protection System (SINAPROC) issued a "Green Alert" this afternoon for the province of Bocas del Toro due to intermittent rainfall occurring in the area that have led to increased river levels. Arturo Alvarado, the Director of SINAPROC, said: "The level of the Sixaola River has risen 6.8 feet." He also said the Changuinola, Teribe, Cricamola, Punta Peña and Rambala rivers, as well as the Cedro and Nigua streams are all at higher levels. It was reported heavy rains may last an additional 12 hours. So far 275 people have been affected by flooding in the in the Las Brisas neighborhood, district of Las Tablas, in Changuinola - these people are being sheltered in "La Aurora". Also affected were the Barriada 14 de Abril, Corrugado, Barriada Nueva Amanecer and Punta Peña in the district of Chiriquí Grande. (Source: La Prensa)   

Ranchers in the province of Los Santos spent Carnival Tuesday building small dams to try to mitigate the depletion of streams. Starting from the early morning hours Tuesday, as thousands of Panamanians enjoyed the last day of carnival, ranchers began building dams using sacks filled with sawdust in an attempt to store enough water to keep their cattle alive through the drought. Water scarcity is remarkable along the river La Villa, whose flow has declined dramatically compared with last year. Florentino Cortez, a rancher who lives in the community of El Corozal, of Macaracas, said he is working with two assistants to dam the creek El Pajonal, and thus he hopes to be able to cope with the months of March and April. The director of the Ministry of Agricultural Development in Los Santos, Jorge Castro, said the institution is distributing bags to farmers to build dams, to mitigate the damage being caused by the El Niño Phenomenon. Last year, a thousand cattle died in the districts of Los Santos, Las Tablas, Guararé, and Macaracas due to a lack water and fodder. The communities most affected by a lack of water are El Cedro, El Corozal, and Chupa in the district of Macaracas, and farms near Las Cruces and Villa Lourdes in the district of Los Santos. In Los Santos there are 273,902 head of cattle. About 1,000 died last year due to drought conditions. (Source: El Siglo)   

70% of the electrical energy that is consuming the country comes from thermal generation plants, and the remaining 30% from hydropower. The National Dispatch Center (CND), which administers the system, is using as much energy as possible from the thermal power plants to conserve water in the reservoirs, said a source. Based on records from the CND, the Fortuna reservoir remains at 1,044.31 meters above sea level, while the Bayano is at 59.93 meters above sea level. For analysts, the driest months are March, April and May, during which time the water now being held in reserve can be used to generate power. (Source: La Prensa)

Editor's Comment: This is a good plan. The power generated by the "thermal" plants, those that burn fossil fuels to generate power, is more expensive. However, there is now a significant "El Niño" ENSO condition in effect which generally results in significantly less rainfall in Panama than normal. You can always import more bunker fuel to burn in the thermal plants, but once the water has left the reservoirs it only gets back in there when it rains. It might cost more to burn the fuel to generate electricity, but that's still better than not being able to generate enough power to meet demand and having to manage rolling black outs or electricity rationing. Fron the NOAA Climate Prediction Center: "Most models indicate that SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niño will persist through April-May-June 2010." El Niño causes greatly increased amounts of rainfall for places like Peru, Ecuador, and Northern Brazil - so while we're looking at drought they are looking at flooding and mudslides. No matter what happens, by June or July the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone will move back over our heads to the North and the rains will return to Panama, maybe two months later than normal.   

Even though Panama's National Institute of Aqueducts and Sewers (IDAAN) has been taking measures to conserve water since last December, concerns over the water supply continue due to the ongoing ENSO phenomenon of "El Niño" which is expected to last until next June, said Rodrigo Barragán on the TVN Channel 2 news broadcast this morning. He said the water supplies in Panama city depend on Alajuela Lake which was at its maximum capacity in December at the start of the dry season, but which has since shown a marked decline. Barragán, called on the public to save water and said people should "only use what is necessary to avoid rationing." He said in 2007 there was a similar situation but thanks to the cooperation of the public the IDAAN did not have to ration water. Barragán said that if they do eventually have to ration water, the cuts will be planned, programmed, and done by sectors, and noted that "in truth I hope it's something that we will not have to do, I don't like the idea." (Source: TVN Noticias)   

NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI 2254 UTC TUE JAN 12 2010. THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ... A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI / CUBA / BAHAMAS / DOMINICAN REP. FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN COVERED BY THIS MESSAGE...IT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME. THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 2153Z 12 JAN 2010 COORDINATES - 18.5 NORTH 72.5 WEST LOCATION - HAITI REGION MAGNITUDE - 7.1 NOTE: MAGNITUDE IS REDUCED FROM 7.3 TO 7.1

THERE ARE NO SEA LEVEL READINGS YET FOR THIS EVENT. READINGS FROM THE NEAREST GAUGES SHOULD BE RECEIVED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

EVALUATION - A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. HOWEVER - THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES FOR THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY. AREAS FURTHER FROM THE EPICENTER COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL COASTAL CURRENTS.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME HAITI JEREMIE 18.6N 74.1W 2215Z 12 JAN PORT-AU-PRINCE 18.5N 72.4W 2228Z 12 JAN CAP-HAITEN 19.8N 72.2W 2246Z 12 JAN CUBA BARACOA 20.4N 74.5W 2240Z 12 JAN BAHAMAS GREAT INAGUA 20.9N 73.7W 2237Z 12 JAN DOMINICAN REP PUERTO PLATA 19.8N 70.7W 2256Z 12 JAN SANTO DOMINGO 18.5N 69.9W 2328Z 12 JAN

ADDITIONAL BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.   

A quake measuring 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale rocked the impoverished Caribbean nation of Haiti Tuesday causing panic as it struck, officials and AFP witnesses said. A tsunami alert was immediately issued for the Caribbean region after the earthquake struck at 2153 GMT. An AFP correspondent said the ground shook for more than a minute. The US Geological Survey said the powerful quake was initially measured at 7.3 on the scale and struck 16 kilometers (ten miles) from the capital Port-Au-Prince, and 27 kilometers (17 miles) from Petionville. An AFP correspondent in Petionville said one three-story building was toppled, and a tractor was already at the scene trying to dig out victims as people fled onto the streets in panic. The up-scale area is home to many foreign diplomats and members of a major United Nations mission to the country. The temblor struck at a depth of 10 kilometers (6.2 miles), the USGS said. A tsunami warning was in place for Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas and the Dominican Republic, with the first waves predicted to hit Haiti shortly. Already the poorest nation in the Americas, Haiti has been hit by a series of disasters recently and was battered by hurricanes in 2008. The country was also gripped by a tense political standoff in April 2008 amid riots over skyrocketing food prices. Seventy percent of Haiti's population lives on less than two US dollars per day and half of its 8.5 million people are unemployed. According to official figures, food insecurity already affects more than a quarter of Haiti's population, some 1.9 million people, with women and children the worst affected. The Food and Agriculture Organization has designated Haiti as one of the world's most economically vulnerable countries. The WFP serves one meal a day to more than 500,000 Haitian schoolchildren, providing them with what is often their only meal of the day. The organisation also feeds 100,000 women who are pregnant or breastfeeding and 50,000 children under the age of five. Since mid-2004, the Brazilian-led MINUSTAH has been keeping the peace in the impoverished Caribbean island nation.

Editor's Comment: There's a direct line of sight from the location of this strong earthquake, which happened at 2153 GMT (16:53 local Panama). Heads Up!



   

The strengthening of a cold front, which remains stationary over Costa Rica, has caused several problems in the provinces of Bocas del Toro, Chiriquí and Colón. It has been raining constantly, accompanied by strong winds. Arturo Alvarado, the Director of the National System of Civil Protection, confirmed he has declared a "green alert" - which means they are monitoring the situation at several locations. So there the level of the Caldera river has risen, along the coast waves as high as 12 feet have been reported, with sustained winds of 25 kilometers per hour. Alvarado reported that a 16 year old is missing in the Teribe river in Bocas del Toro. In the province of Colón an abandoned ship broke loose from its anchor and ran aground in front of the Parque de la Juventud near 1st Street in the city of Colón. Due to the intensity of the winds, the Flower Fair in Boquete had to be shut down on Monday evening. According to the report, the flow of the Caldera river rose two meters. The cold front will remain in place for about 24 hours more, so stay alert. Officials in the area of Talamanca in Costa Rica, the headwaters of the Sixaola river, remain at a yellow alert. This cold front is stationary over Costa Rica, where it has also caused several problems. (Source: Kathyria Caicedo for Telemetro Reporta)   

By DON WINNER for Panama-Guide.com - I found this scholarly study of the impact and effects of both El Niño and La Niña in Panama. In a nutshell, apparently both of them cause less than normal rainfall. I know there was much less than normal rainfall in the 2007-2008 incident, and at that time it was a La Niña ENSO condition in effect, so there you go. Here's the complete report:

EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA : The Influence of El Niño and La Niña In Panama. Panama’s climate presents two distinct seasons, a rainy season (mid-April to mid-December), and a dry season (mid-December until mid –April). The climatic events known as El Niño and La Niña have ample repercussion in Panama. Both are characterized mainly by the alterations that they cause to the regional precipitation patterns (Donoso and Bakkum, 1998)

El Niño is the more studied of the two ENSO extremes, mainly because its effect on the country is more widespread than that of its counterpart La Niña. Therefore, more information exists related to El Niño than to La Niña. Depending on its intensity, El Niño usually causes below normal precipitation in Panama, mainly on the Pacific side of Panama. When a La Niña of considerable intensity occurs, precipitation in Panama tends to be above normal. Floods tend to accompany strong La Niña events. The intensity and duration of the deficit or excess of rain in the country is highly correlated with the intensity of the ENSO extreme event. (more)    Click Here To Read The Full Article (2,316 words)